A Rutgers University study suggests that American traders have funneled between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through the offshore crypto prediction market Polymarket, despite the platform's ban in the US since 2022.
- US-based trades on Polymarket estimated at $10.6–$26.7 billion in one year
- US traders use VPNs to bypass the 2022 US ban on the crypto platform
- Polymarket US app operates legally but has much smaller volume ($1.6B vs $9B)
What happened
A study led by Rutgers statistician Harry Crane estimated the volume of US-based trading activity taking place on Polymarket’s offshore crypto platform from May 2025 to April 2026. The analysis found that Americans engaged in an estimated $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion worth of trades, despite the exchange being banned in the US since 2022 for operating as an unregistered derivatives platform.
US-centric markets, especially those related to American sports and elections, showed disproportionately high activity from US traders. To circumvent the ban, traders reportedly use virtual private networks (VPNs) and potentially other location-masking tactics to access Polymarket’s main crypto-based platform. Despite being prohibited in Polymarket’s terms of service, VPN usage is widespread. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s legal US app variant, Polymarket US, recorded only around $1.6 billion in trading volume during April 2026, dwarfed by approximately $9 billion on the banned platform.
Why it matters
This study is the first public attempt to quantify how many Americans are circumventing regulatory restrictions by accessing offshore prediction market platforms. It highlights the difficulty regulators face in enforcing bans on crypto derivatives platforms when savvy users can mask their locations and behaviors online.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which banned Polymarket’s main platform, has limited jurisdiction over offshore operations but has expressed willingness to pursue enforcement through extraterritorial authority on a case-by-case basis. However, it remains unclear whether US regulators will seek to prosecute or intervene against individuals merely accessing banned platforms covertly without other illegal conduct. The research underscores a growing challenge for regulatory agencies attempting to govern decentralized and cryptographically enabled prediction markets.
What to watch next
Regulators may increase scrutiny of offshore prediction market platforms and begin targeting individuals or entities that facilitate illicit US-based trading activity. The CFTC’s willingness to use extraterritorial jurisdiction could lead to more enforcement actions, especially if accompanied by evidence of insider trading or other illicit behavior, as in recent cases tied to Polymarket.
At the same time, industry groups like the Coalition for Prediction Markets may push for clearer regulatory frameworks and legal, licensed alternatives in the US to channel demand away from illicit venues. Polymarket’s ongoing development of its US-licensed app shows one approach to compliance, but it remains to be seen if that platform can capture a meaningful share of the market currently dominated by the banned offshore platform.