A recent study by Carnegie China reveals that China has overtaken the United States as the top destination for elite artificial intelligence researchers, signaling a pivotal change in the global distribution of AI expertise.
- China employs 41% of elite global AI researchers, surpassing the US at 34%
- Domestic education and retention of AI talent in China have increased significantly
- US remains a key destination for Chinese researchers venturing abroad but faces mobility challenges
What happened
A Carnegie China study tracking over 10,000 leading AI researchers revealed that China employed 41% of the world's elite AI talent in 2025, overtaking the United States, which accounted for 34%. This marks a notable shift from 2022 when the US held a dominance with 46% compared to China's 27%. The research focused on authors accepted at a major machine learning conference, reflecting the most cutting-edge AI expertise globally.
The shift is attributed to a combination of expanded career opportunities within China’s rapidly growing AI sector, competitive salaries comparable to Silicon Valley, and policies that retain domestic talent. Notably, a higher proportion of researchers who earned undergraduate degrees in China are choosing to build their careers locally, reinforcing the growth of the country’s AI ecosystem.
Why it matters
This development signals a broader transformation in the global technology race, with China solidifying its position as a powerhouse in AI innovation. The increased retention of elite researchers domestically contributes to a more robust and self-reliant AI industry in China, reducing reliance on foreign talent and enhancing national technological competitiveness.
Heightened visa restrictions and regulatory scrutiny on both sides are limiting cross-border mobility of AI talent, intensifying competition for skills. These barriers reflect geopolitical tensions but also emphasize the strategic importance nations place on AI capabilities as critical to economic growth, national security, and future technological leadership.
What to watch next
Industry observers will be closely monitoring the evolving policies affecting researcher mobility between China and the US, including tightened export controls and restrictions related to national security concerns. How these regulations impact international collaboration and talent flows will be a key factor shaping the AI landscape in coming years.
Advancements in China’s AI capabilities, such as deployments of powerful new AI chips and increasingly sophisticated AI models like Alibaba’s Qwen 5, are expected to accelerate. These initiatives underpin China's goal to expand its domestic AI ecosystem and challenge the US lead in critical AI infrastructure and research.