China’s leading online travel agency Trip.com Group expects a significant slowdown in second-quarter revenue growth and faces the risk of a substantial fine from an ongoing antitrust investigation by China’s top market regulator.
- Q2 revenue growth expected at 3-8%, slowest since 2022.
- Ongoing antitrust probe may lead to significant financial penalties.
- International bookings remain strong despite domestic challenges.
What happened
Trip.com Group, China’s largest online travel platform, announced that its revenue for the first quarter of 2026 rose 17% to 16.2 billion yuan (approximately US$2.4 billion). However, the company forecasted a much slower growth rate of 3% to 8% for the second quarter, marking the weakest revenue growth since late 2022. Profit for the March quarter plunged nearly 42% to 2.5 billion yuan, its lowest level since late 2024.
The company cautioned investors that an ongoing antitrust investigation initiated by the State Administration for Market Regulation in January could lead to a significant fine, financial penalties, or changes to Trip.com’s business practices. The company also disclosed regulatory scrutiny connected to train-ticketing services, including complaints about add-on charges and restrictions on automated ticket-buying software.
Why it matters
The sharp deceleration in revenue growth signals broader challenges for China’s online travel sector amid rising costs and geopolitical tensions disrupting international travel routes. These issues have resulted in higher airfares, reduced airline capacity, and shifts in consumer booking behaviors, particularly on long-haul flights.
Additionally, intensified regulatory oversight in China, including the antitrust probe and increased regulation of train-ticketing platforms, underscores tightening government control over the digital travel industry. Potential fines and operational adjustments could materially impact Trip.com’s financial health and market positioning in its home market.
What to watch next
Market watchers should closely monitor the outcome and timing of the antitrust investigation, as any substantial penalties or imposed business changes could materially affect Trip.com’s operations and profitability. The company has acknowledged uncertainty around the probe’s resolution and its financial implications.
On the positive side, Trip.com’s international operations, including its overseas platforms Trip.com and Skyscanner, have shown robust growth, with gross bookings on international channels jumping approximately 65% in Q1 and inbound travel bookings soaring by nearly 90%. This international expansion may offer a buffer against domestic pressures but will be important to track in the coming quarters.