Global investment in artificial intelligence is expected to reach approximately $1 trillion in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Research. This surge represents 0.9% of global GDP, with projections rising to 1.4% of GDP by 2028, signaling sustained capital expenditure growth driven by broad industry participation.
- AI investment to reach $1 trillion globally in 2026
- US accounts for $581 billion of AI-related expenditure
- AI spending expected to grow to 1.4% of global GDP by 2028
What happened
Goldman Sachs Research projects that global investment in artificial intelligence will reach around $1 trillion in 2026. This figure represents approximately 0.9% of the global GDP. The bank forecasts this share of AI capital expenditure will increase to 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% by 2028, signaling strong, sustained growth in AI-related investment over the next several years.
The research estimate includes an aggregate of investment across several sectors, incorporating US hyperscalers, private companies, non-hyperscaler firms, and international players. The US alone is expected to contribute $581 billion to the 2026 total. Additionally, cumulative AI investment since 2022 may reach as high as $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters
This forecast indicates a major shift in global capital allocation towards AI technologies, reflecting their importance as a transformative, general-purpose technology with broad economic impact. The projected peak investment levels fall within the historical range seen in previous major technology buildouts, which typically reach between 2% and 5% of GDP at their height.
Sustained investment at these levels will likely support continued innovation and adoption of AI across industries, affecting global productivity and competitiveness. However, Goldman Sachs also highlights risks and uncertainties in these estimates, including challenges in precisely measuring AI-related expenditures and potential changes in investment momentum.
What to watch next
Market participants should monitor near-term indicators such as semiconductor equipment imports from top Asian producers, purchasing managers' indices, and pricing trends for memory and GPUs, all of which currently suggest that AI spending growth remains robust. These data points serve as early signals of continued capital deployment in this sector beyond 2026.
Investors and policymakers will also be watching how AI investment as a share of GDP evolves globally and within leading markets like the US, as any acceleration or slowdown in spending trajectories could materially impact technology markets, capital expenditure forecasts, and broader economic conditions.