Morgan Stanley has once again upgraded its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments this year, more than doubling its previous estimate to 50,000 units as leading Chinese companies and government initiatives accelerate the industry’s growth.
- 2026 humanoid robot shipment forecast revised up to 50,000 units
- Strong policy and industry competition fueling rapid growth
- Xpeng, Galbot, UBTech lead mass production and large contracts
What happened
Morgan Stanley has increased its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments in 2026 from 28,000 units to 50,000 units following robust market signals and expanding industry activity. This marks a significant upgrade, reflecting heightened confidence in commercial adoption and production readiness. The forecast for 2030 shipments was similarly raised to 446,000 units from an earlier estimate of 262,000, underscoring strong growth prospects over the next several years.
This upgrade is driven by announcements from multiple Chinese companies moving toward mass production, including Xpeng’s plan to begin commercial manufacturing of its Iron humanoid robot by the end of 2026. Other firms like Galbot secured major contracts, such as a nearly $35 million order for 500 robots from a state-owned energy company. Shenzhen’s UBTech Robotics and Unitree Robotics are also making significant production and sales strides, supported by intensifying domestic competition in the robotics space.
Why it matters
China’s rapid progress in humanoid robotics is supported by strong national policy initiatives designed to transition robots from staged demonstrations to real-world industrial and commercial applications. A new government training program emphasizes developing robots' practical capabilities across factories, warehouses, and hospitals. This approach leverages large-scale deployments that generate valuable data to improve robot performance and speed up commercialization.
The accelerating volume of shipments and mass production efforts are positioning China as a dominant player in the global humanoid robot market. Compared with limited production numbers by US companies such as Tesla and Figure AI, Chinese startups and state-backed enterprises are scaling rapidly. This expansion is expected to shift market share toward full-sized humanoid robots, slated to control 70% of the market by 2028.
What to watch next
Key indicators to monitor include the progress of Xpeng’s humanoid robot commercialization later this year and the fulfillment of bulk orders by firms like Galbot. Performance in these initial deployments will provide critical validation for wider commercial adoption. Additionally, government-mandated training programs and scenario testing across provinces and state-owned enterprises will demonstrate the sector’s ability to deliver practical benefits beyond prototypes.
The upcoming public listing of Unitree Robotics on Shanghai’s Star Market and its capital raise ambitions will also be a significant milestone for funding and scaling the industry. Furthermore, the entry of foreign players like Japan’s SoftBank Group with recent acquisitions and robot manufacturing plans could influence competitive dynamics. Close attention should be paid to market reaction and the pace of innovation as China aims to lead the future humanoid robotics market globally.