In India, quick commerce is no longer an occasional luxury but a core part of urban shopping habits, expected to contribute significantly to the country’s retail market expansion over the next five years.
- Quick commerce to reach $60 billion GMV by FY31
- Non-grocery sales gain larger share of quick commerce
- Monthly active users to exceed 100 million by FY31
What happened
A report by Anand Rathi Research reveals that quick commerce in India has evolved from a luxury service to a permanent structural shift in urban retail. The sector’s gross merchandise value (GMV) is forecasted to surge to approximately $60 billion by FY31, up from $11.3 billion in FY26 and just $1.6 billion in FY23.
This rapid growth aligns with the broader retail market’s expansion, expected to reach $1.5 to $1.6 trillion by FY31 at an 8-10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Quick commerce is projected to contribute 9-11% of the incremental retail market growth, driven by increasing customer numbers and order frequencies.
Why it matters
The quick commerce sector’s rising significance signals a transformative change in Indian consumer behavior, shifting how urban populations access goods with speed and convenience now embedded in daily consumption habits. Importantly, the growth is not limited to groceries—non-grocery items are expected to increase their share from 29% in FY26 to up to 44% by FY31.
This diversification into non-grocery categories presents opportunities for higher margins and wallet share expansion given the better unit economics generally associated with these products. The sector’s growth also fosters a virtuous cycle of rising platform relevance and improving consumer experience across urban India.
What to watch next
Stakeholders should monitor the expansion of monthly transacting users (MTUs), which the report projects will climb to between 105 and 115 million by FY31, from just 5.6 million in FY23. This user growth is a critical driver of order volume increases and overall sector scale.
Additionally, tracking the evolving product mix within quick commerce will be key. As the share of non-grocery sales rises, firms that effectively capitalize on this shift stand to improve profitability and strengthen their market positioning in a rapidly maturing ecosystem.